***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 24.2 23.2 28.1 60.2 26.6 28.8 27.1 38.1 50.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 23.5 20.7 28.5 63.5 26.7 29.9 24.5 36.1 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 30.3 28.1 29.2 59.6 25.3 27.5 33.5 46.4 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 33.9 32.5 32.0 58.1 23.1 25.8 40.2 54.1 69.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 26.3 23.7 32.4 58.5 22.4 25.3 31.7 45.2 61.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 28.4 27.1 34.0 63.6 27.6 29.8 31.1 44.9 61.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.4 23.3 28.8 65.4 28.2 31.0 25.9 35.9 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 35.4 33.8 34.6 59.8 23.2 25.8 43.8 63.1 85.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 23.7 23.0 33.8 60.5 23.7 26.0 29.3 41.7 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 29.9 29.3 35.4 60.0 23.7 25.7 36.5 50.0 65.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 25.3 24.1 30.4 59.2 24.6 26.7 31.3 47.2 66.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 28.9 27.6 30.4 59.9 24.4 26.8 35.4 52.9 73.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 26.5 23.1 31.8 60.4 24.1 27.2 30.9 48.5 69.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 38.0 36.2 37.0 59.8 24.5 26.2 43.2 58.3 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 31.8 27.5 31.1 56.3 21.7 24.2 38.5 56.4 77.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 25.5 23.7 29.8 58.8 23.7 26.5 30.9 45.4 62.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 25.8 25.0 29.1 66.2 29.1 31.7 27.5 38.3 51.1 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 31.3 30.6 39.1 60.3 23.4 25.2 38.0 51.9 68.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 28.2 25.5 28.6 61.5 25.7 28.8 30.3 42.0 55.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 30.9 26.7 45.1 58.7 20.3 23.8 39.3 57.6 79.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 24.7 23.2 31.0 59.7 24.3 26.5 29.2 41.9 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 30.9 28.8 29.8 63.5 27.1 29.6 32.7 45.2 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 26.3 24.2 30.3 59.8 24.7 27.2 29.2 40.1 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 31.3 30.3 35.7 60.3 24.8 26.3 37.0 51.4 68.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 21.0 18.9 32.8 59.4 22.6 26.4 25.1 36.2 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.2 23.5 31.0 58.2 23.5 26.4 31.4 46.7 65.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 23.0 20.9 31.4 60.9 24.8 28.1 26.2 37.8 51.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 27.1 25.3 30.7 57.2 23.0 25.4 33.0 47.3 64.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 46.8 44.4 41.5 60.0 22.6 24.9 56.5 76.5 99.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 25.1 22.5 28.1 61.8 25.9 29.0 26.6 37.7 50.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------