***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.3 3.8 -1.9 27.8 29.4 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.8 0.9 3.8 -1.4 31.8 33.4 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.7 2.8 4.1 -1.6 28.8 30.4 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -2.8 -2.7 1.6 -1.6 28.5 30.5 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 0.0 0.3 2.7 -1.6 30.4 31.8 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 1.7 0.4 0.9 -0.6 41.6 42.6 -0.3 1.2 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.6 0.6 3.5 -1.7 29.3 31.0 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -3.8 0.8 -1.0 36.5 37.4 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.2 2.7 -1.3 32.9 34.3 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.8 38.4 39.3 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.3 0.5 2.6 -1.0 36.5 37.5 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 1.2 -1.5 31.1 32.2 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 1.0 -1.5 30.3 31.6 -0.1 1.4 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.4 2.9 -0.8 38.6 39.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 2.4 0.8 3.9 -0.8 38.5 40.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.7 -1.2 33.8 35.0 1.0 2.5 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.8 1.0 3.5 -1.3 32.6 34.2 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 0.9 -0.1 1.2 -0.7 39.5 40.3 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.0 1.3 3.9 -1.2 33.1 34.6 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -2.9 0.3 -0.6 42.5 43.0 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 0.6 0.6 3.2 -1.9 25.5 27.3 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.4 0.9 4.0 -1.0 35.3 36.7 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 2.9 1.6 4.1 -1.0 35.8 37.2 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.2 0.8 2.6 -1.1 34.8 36.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 0.7 0.7 3.3 -2.0 26.2 27.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 -1.6 30.3 31.4 0.1 1.6 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 0.9 0.9 3.3 -2.1 25.7 27.3 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 2.3 -1.2 33.7 35.5 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 0.7 0.0 1.0 -0.2 46.4 46.6 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.1 3.9 -1.5 30.5 32.0 1.4 2.8 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------