***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.4 2.0 -1.5 26.7 30.0 0.8 1.9 2.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 1.9 -1.1 30.8 33.4 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.7 1.7 2.1 -1.3 28.3 31.3 2.0 3.2 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -3.7 -3.8 -0.4 -1.3 28.0 31.7 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 -1.3 28.5 31.9 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0 30.6 34.8 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -0.2 -0.1 1.8 -1.3 29.2 32.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -5.2 -5.0 -1.4 -1.1 30.8 34.3 -4.9 -3.8 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 0.3 0.4 0.6 -1.1 30.3 33.7 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0 32.4 35.5 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 29.8 33.3 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.0 -1.4 27.2 31.2 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 25.7 30.4 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.1 0.7 -0.8 36.6 38.8 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 1.1 -1.0 30.3 34.1 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 28.0 32.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 1.8 -1.1 31.8 34.1 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 35.6 38.1 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -0.1 0.2 1.9 -1.1 31.1 33.8 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -4.3 -2.2 -0.9 35.3 38.0 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -0.1 -0.2 1.4 -1.4 26.6 30.2 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 2.0 -0.9 33.2 35.4 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 0.0 0.3 2.0 -1.0 32.6 35.1 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.9 33.6 36.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 27 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.2 -1.5 26.2 29.7 0.5 1.5 2.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 26.3 30.6 -0.2 0.7 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 -1.6 25.7 29.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -1.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.2 29.0 32.8 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.6 39.1 41.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.2 2.0 -1.2 29.5 32.3 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------