***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 7.6 7.5 9.2 -3.1 16.4 17.7 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 6.5 6.3 9.0 -3.3 15.2 16.3 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 7.6 7.5 9.4 -3.3 16.1 17.3 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 1.7 0.2 4.9 -4.2 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 7.9 7.5 7.7 -3.5 15.3 16.3 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 7.1 6.9 6.5 -3.4 17.2 18.5 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 6.4 6.3 9.0 -3.2 16.0 17.1 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 1.6 1.7 7.2 -2.9 21.5 22.6 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 8.1 7.7 8.5 -3.5 14.7 15.7 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.5 -3.4 18.0 19.1 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 8.0 7.6 8.1 -3.6 15.5 16.7 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 8.0 8.0 7.5 -3.2 18.3 19.6 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.7 -2.9 21.1 22.3 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 7.9 8.2 8.7 -3.3 19.3 20.1 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 6.4 5.1 7.3 -3.9 8.8 10.1 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 8.4 8.1 7.7 -3.5 16.6 17.7 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 6.2 6.0 8.6 -3.2 15.7 16.7 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 7.4 7.6 7.5 -2.9 22.9 23.8 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 6.9 6.7 9.1 -3.4 15.5 16.6 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 7.6 7.5 -1.4 36.0 36.7 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 7.7 7.5 9.3 -3.4 15.5 16.6 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 6.7 6.6 8.9 -3.1 16.8 17.7 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 6.9 7.0 9.3 -3.3 17.1 18.1 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 8.4 8.5 8.7 -3.4 18.2 19.2 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 6.9 6.7 8.3 -3.1 16.9 18.0 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.3 8.5 -1.6 30.7 31.7 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 7.5 7.6 9.0 -2.9 18.1 19.3 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 7.2 6.1 5.9 -4.3 8.6 9.7 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.3 7.8 -2.0 30.3 31.1 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 6.7 6.6 9.2 -3.2 16.0 17.1 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------