***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 6.0 5.7 7.5 -2.9 20.0 24.1 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 5.3 5.2 7.5 -2.9 19.5 23.8 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 5.7 5.6 7.8 -3.0 19.7 24.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 0.5 0.4 4.9 -2.5 23.4 27.9 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.3 -2.8 22.7 26.7 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 5.9 6.2 5.6 -2.4 25.9 29.8 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 5.3 5.0 7.5 -2.8 19.7 23.9 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -0.4 0.1 6.1 -2.3 27.8 31.4 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 6.1 6.2 7.0 -2.9 21.5 25.6 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 5.7 6.2 6.4 -2.7 24.8 28.7 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 6.0 5.9 6.6 -3.0 22.0 26.1 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.3 -2.6 24.8 28.6 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 6.2 6.3 6.4 -2.8 23.2 26.9 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 5.9 6.2 7.4 -3.0 22.3 26.5 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 5.6 5.1 6.4 -2.5 21.1 26.5 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 6.8 6.8 6.1 -2.9 22.2 26.1 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 5.0 4.9 7.3 -2.7 20.3 24.7 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 5.0 5.7 6.4 -2.5 27.0 30.6 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 5.3 5.1 7.7 -3.0 19.5 23.8 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.5 5.6 -1.6 34.6 37.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 6.0 6.0 7.5 -3.0 20.7 24.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 5.2 5.3 7.6 -2.6 21.6 25.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 5.4 5.4 7.9 -3.0 19.8 24.0 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 6.3 6.7 7.3 -2.9 22.7 26.9 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 5.8 5.7 6.5 -2.7 21.8 25.8 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 6.6 7.1 6.3 -1.9 29.4 32.0 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 6.3 6.2 7.1 -2.8 20.7 24.6 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 5.8 5.4 5.6 -2.6 22.5 27.4 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 2.9 3.6 6.2 -2.1 30.2 33.4 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 5.4 5.3 7.6 -2.9 19.7 23.8 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------