***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.3 7.5 7.1 0.7 57.5 57.0 5.1 6.8 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.8 7.1 0.8 58.4 57.2 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.2 7.7 0.9 59.4 58.3 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.7 3.0 4.8 0.8 58.6 57.4 0.1 2.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.0 5.8 0.8 57.9 56.9 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.7 5.3 0.6 56.0 55.2 5.2 7.0 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.3 6.5 7.0 0.7 57.4 56.4 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.6 5.6 0.8 57.6 56.5 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.9 6.7 0.9 59.1 57.8 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.2 6.2 0.9 58.8 57.5 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.0 5.9 0.7 56.9 56.3 5.3 7.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.3 5.7 0.6 56.5 55.9 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.9 5.2 0.4 54.0 53.9 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.3 9.0 7.5 1.3 61.8 59.9 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.7 5.6 0.8 58.8 57.6 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.6 5.5 0.6 55.7 55.4 5.9 7.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.1 7.1 0.9 59.4 57.6 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.3 6.4 1.0 59.5 58.2 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.1 7.4 0.9 59.2 57.9 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.4 4.7 0.8 57.5 56.2 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.2 7.2 1.0 59.8 58.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.9 7.3 1.0 60.9 58.8 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.5 7.9 1.1 60.5 58.9 5.0 6.6 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.7 9.2 7.3 1.2 60.9 59.4 6.4 8.1 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.9 5.9 0.8 58.1 57.1 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.7 5.0 0.3 53.2 53.3 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.6 7.8 6.7 0.7 57.0 56.3 5.4 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.5 5.2 0.9 58.7 57.5 4.9 6.6 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 5.8 0.9 58.8 57.6 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 6.6 6.9 7.1 0.8 57.7 56.9 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------