***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 6.9 7.1 7.8 -1.5 27.1 29.8 7.7 9.2 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 6.3 6.5 7.7 -1.5 27.4 29.8 7.0 8.4 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.2 -1.5 27.6 30.1 8.2 9.6 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 1.6 1.7 4.9 -1.6 25.6 29.1 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 7.5 7.5 6.5 -1.5 27.5 30.6 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.0 5.7 -1.6 27.2 30.8 7.5 9.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 6.2 6.3 7.7 -1.5 27.1 29.5 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.4 1.6 6.1 -1.3 31.8 34.7 1.7 2.8 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.3 -1.5 27.7 30.6 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.5 7.6 6.6 -1.4 29.9 32.8 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.7 -1.7 26.5 29.8 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.4 -1.5 28.6 31.9 8.2 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.8 7.6 6.4 -1.6 27.0 30.4 8.2 9.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.4 7.8 -1.3 31.7 33.8 8.5 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 5.9 6.0 6.3 -1.5 25.9 29.4 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.0 6.2 -1.7 26.1 29.5 8.7 10.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 5.8 6.0 7.6 -1.4 28.2 30.6 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.7 6.7 -1.2 33.2 35.7 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 6.6 6.9 8.0 -1.5 28.0 30.3 7.3 8.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.9 5.7 -0.7 40.3 42.1 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 7.5 7.7 7.8 -1.5 27.7 30.5 8.2 9.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.8 7.8 -1.3 30.5 32.6 7.0 8.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.3 -1.4 29.5 31.6 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 8.5 8.9 7.6 -1.4 30.6 33.0 9.1 10.6 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 6.7 6.8 6.7 -1.4 27.9 30.8 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.0 6.3 -1.0 33.3 36.1 7.9 9.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 7.4 7.6 7.4 -1.5 27.5 30.2 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.5 5.5 -1.7 25.4 28.9 7.1 8.4 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.3 6.5 -0.9 37.2 39.3 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.6 7.8 -1.5 27.4 29.8 7.1 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------