***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.8 1.4 12.5 17.9 12.4 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 2.0 2.5 2.1 19.2 24.1 18.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 2.5 2.6 2.2 19.7 23.7 17.4 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.8 5.3 4.9 36.7 35.2 28.7 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 1.9 2.2 1.9 16.9 20.7 14.1 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 1.6 1.5 1.2 11.1 17.0 12.4 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.7 15.5 21.5 16.4 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 3.4 4.2 3.0 21.2 26.8 18.2 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 2.0 2.2 2.2 20.3 22.7 15.8 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 1.9 2.8 3.1 24.7 28.0 19.8 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.2 18.6 23.7 16.4 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 2.2 2.7 2.2 17.0 23.8 15.5 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 1.5 1.5 1.5 11.6 17.2 11.8 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 3.0 4.8 4.2 29.8 31.2 24.2 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 2.6 3.5 4.0 33.4 34.6 28.0 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 1.4 1.7 1.5 12.9 19.1 12.6 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 2.0 2.5 2.3 19.9 24.3 18.5 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.6 26.5 29.3 20.0 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 2.1 3.0 2.5 22.5 26.3 19.9 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 2.3 3.3 3.1 18.7 25.3 15.5 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 1.9 2.0 1.8 16.8 20.0 14.0 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.0 25.5 28.3 21.4 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 2.3 3.3 2.9 25.6 28.9 21.7 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 2.2 3.6 3.4 27.6 29.6 21.4 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.5 12.2 16.1 12.1 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 1.7 1.3 1.4 10.2 17.2 9.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 1.3 1.1 1.4 11.4 16.2 12.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.9 3.8 4.5 37.5 36.4 29.5 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 3.2 4.6 3.4 22.8 27.4 18.2 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 2.3 2.6 2.0 17.7 22.6 16.8 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------