***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.0 9.1 8.3 71.1 51.8 39.2 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 7.8 6.5 61.8 48.1 35.5 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.2 11.4 8.4 71.7 52.0 39.1 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.9 12.1 9.8 68.0 50.7 36.5 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.4 10.0 74.2 53.2 40.6 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 6.2 14.2 9.7 76.0 55.2 40.5 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.5 8.4 6.5 62.4 48.2 35.7 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.6 17.5 10.0 71.3 52.0 39.8 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.8 10.5 78.4 54.3 41.7 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 12.7 10.5 75.7 53.4 40.3 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.5 11.6 9.1 67.5 50.2 37.0 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.5 11.5 8.8 67.4 50.6 38.4 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.7 12.1 9.2 68.2 51.4 37.5 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.3 15.3 10.1 71.6 51.4 38.9 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 4.2 11.9 9.8 66.0 51.1 34.8 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.8 12.7 9.7 73.5 53.7 40.6 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 5.1 8.4 6.0 56.0 45.5 34.0 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.5 13.5 10.5 75.7 52.7 40.0 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.7 9.2 6.8 63.1 48.5 35.5 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 5.7 10.0 10.4 60.5 44.0 33.7 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.0 9.6 75.3 52.9 40.6 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.1 8.1 6.3 54.8 44.8 35.4 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.9 9.7 7.8 68.1 49.8 36.0 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.0 11.6 9.7 72.7 51.3 38.6 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.7 9.3 66.0 48.5 37.0 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 6.0 11.4 9.0 63.1 47.6 35.8 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.3 8.6 68.6 50.1 38.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.7 10.1 72.0 53.5 38.2 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.5 19.0 10.6 72.2 50.7 38.5 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.4 9.1 7.3 68.5 51.3 38.2 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------