***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.9 9.2 81.6 56.7 45.7 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.4 6.1 7.9 78.0 56.0 43.6 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.9 8.6 75.6 54.7 44.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 9.8 11.2 82.7 56.6 44.3 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.1 11.1 84.2 57.4 45.0 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.2 12.1 95.0 62.2 47.9 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.4 7.7 76.1 55.0 42.7 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.0 11.9 83.1 57.3 44.6 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.7 10.9 79.8 55.3 43.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.7 11.4 79.5 55.2 43.5 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.9 83.7 57.4 43.9 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.9 11.2 86.9 59.0 44.9 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.7 12.0 93.1 61.2 46.3 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.0 9.7 69.7 51.0 41.6 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.4 10.9 78.1 55.8 42.7 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.0 11.5 91.6 60.6 46.5 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.5 7.7 78.1 56.0 42.5 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.5 10.7 71.7 51.6 42.2 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.1 7.9 75.7 54.8 43.2 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.9 13.6 74.7 53.7 44.0 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.0 6.7 10.0 79.7 55.4 44.6 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.3 8.1 78.1 55.5 42.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.1 7.8 71.5 52.7 42.2 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.4 8.5 9.4 69.7 50.9 41.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.7 11.0 85.3 57.6 46.0 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.9 11.0 83.2 57.9 44.4 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.8 9.9 84.5 57.7 46.4 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.6 10.9 83.1 57.2 44.2 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.0 11.2 71.5 51.7 42.9 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.6 8.3 78.7 56.6 44.8 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------