***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.2 12.4 99.9 63.3 52.0 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.7 10.3 92.1 60.6 49.1 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.4 12.6 99.6 63.5 50.4 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.6 15.1 13.7 97.5 63.0 48.9 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 13.4 13.9 98.3 63.0 48.5 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.4 11.9 14.5 108.1 66.3 51.0 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.4 9.7 87.1 58.9 47.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.8 17.3 15.0 98.3 62.3 47.9 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.4 14.4 97.9 62.7 48.2 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.0 13.9 15.1 97.7 62.1 47.7 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.3 14.2 14.0 100.8 63.4 48.6 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.2 17.1 13.9 102.0 63.7 48.7 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.0 15.8 14.9 107.7 66.0 51.3 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.4 15.6 98.3 62.4 49.1 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 17.1 13.5 96.3 63.4 48.0 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.1 13.7 14.1 105.1 65.2 50.2 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.3 9.1 82.3 56.9 45.9 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 13.3 15.2 93.6 60.3 46.0 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.1 11.0 95.5 61.9 49.9 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 13.5 18.3 91.2 59.4 46.6 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.4 13.4 98.8 63.1 49.4 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.0 86.6 58.5 47.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.7 12.1 97.4 62.4 49.9 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 13.3 14.4 96.3 61.7 47.8 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.2 13.6 99.6 63.2 51.5 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 12.2 14.6 103.3 64.5 50.1 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.6 12.8 99.5 63.0 52.1 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.8 14.2 13.5 100.3 64.3 48.9 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.8 17.3 16.1 91.9 59.6 45.8 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.9 11.0 95.3 62.1 50.4 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------