***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 24.6 26.7 31.4 66.8 32.1 32.0 27.1 38.1 50.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.6 22.3 26.8 62.5 29.5 29.9 24.5 36.1 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 30.8 33.0 31.7 67.9 32.2 32.3 33.5 46.4 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 37.8 43.1 39.5 71.6 36.6 35.3 40.2 54.1 69.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 27.9 32.8 37.0 70.7 34.5 34.2 31.7 45.2 61.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 27.8 35.7 37.6 74.9 39.0 36.8 31.1 44.9 61.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 23.0 23.0 25.5 60.1 27.8 28.4 25.9 35.9 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 39.8 43.8 39.9 69.1 33.0 33.5 43.8 63.1 85.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.3 30.8 38.0 72.2 35.0 34.9 29.3 41.7 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 33.9 37.2 40.1 71.3 33.9 34.3 36.5 50.0 65.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 28.0 31.8 36.1 69.4 33.5 33.8 31.3 47.2 66.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 31.5 36.1 36.1 68.8 33.6 33.8 35.4 52.9 73.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.5 33.1 37.6 70.8 35.4 34.8 30.9 48.5 69.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 39.2 41.8 39.6 68.4 31.1 31.5 43.2 58.3 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 34.2 42.6 38.2 69.6 37.3 35.3 38.5 56.4 77.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 27.5 33.5 36.8 72.0 36.2 35.3 30.9 45.4 62.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 24.1 24.3 25.1 58.4 27.6 28.2 27.5 38.3 51.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 34.3 36.1 39.9 68.1 30.4 31.5 38.0 51.9 68.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.3 28.2 64.3 30.0 30.6 30.3 42.0 55.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 33.0 33.2 45.4 62.6 26.9 28.4 39.3 57.6 79.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.6 29.6 34.8 70.0 33.6 33.4 29.2 41.9 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 29.7 29.3 27.5 60.6 28.0 28.9 32.7 45.2 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 26.6 27.8 30.7 66.4 30.8 31.4 29.2 40.1 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 34.1 35.0 36.9 68.0 30.9 31.6 37.0 51.4 68.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 22.5 23.9 35.3 66.6 31.2 31.7 25.1 36.2 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 26.3 30.2 36.1 65.2 31.6 31.9 31.4 46.7 65.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 24.2 25.3 32.7 66.3 31.5 31.7 26.2 37.8 51.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 30.2 38.4 39.0 74.1 39.6 37.2 33.0 47.3 64.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 50.7 51.2 41.2 65.8 28.4 30.0 56.5 76.5 99.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 24.9 25.9 28.5 65.2 31.6 31.5 26.6 37.7 50.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------