***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.4 8.0 9.4 5.0 95.3 94.3 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.8 8.0 9.1 5.0 96.2 95.4 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 6.8 9.6 9.0 4.8 95.2 94.6 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.2 5.5 6.5 4.9 94.9 94.2 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.1 6.1 6.7 4.5 92.6 91.9 0.6 1.9 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 3.4 4.2 3.4 3.2 84.9 84.3 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 4.6 7.5 9.0 4.9 95.8 94.6 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.0 5.1 4.1 92.1 91.3 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.7 6.9 4.1 91.6 90.8 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 4.2 5.9 5.7 4.1 91.9 91.2 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 4.0 5.9 6.2 4.3 91.8 91.2 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 3.2 4.8 5.3 3.9 90.6 89.7 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 3.5 4.3 4.2 3.1 84.6 83.8 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.6 6.9 4.0 93.0 92.0 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.4 8.0 5.2 96.6 95.9 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 4.6 6.0 5.3 4.0 89.3 88.7 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 4.3 7.0 8.8 4.9 96.5 95.6 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.4 3.5 4.6 3.6 89.3 88.5 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 4.7 7.5 8.9 4.9 95.9 95.3 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 0.8 2.5 3.1 3.5 88.5 87.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.2 8.2 4.5 93.3 92.5 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.3 8.5 4.6 96.0 95.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.2 6.5 8.4 4.6 95.5 95.0 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 3.7 5.1 6.4 3.9 91.0 90.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.6 6.9 7.9 4.8 94.5 93.6 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 3.6 5.1 4.7 3.6 89.9 88.5 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 5.8 8.6 8.4 4.6 93.7 92.4 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.9 6.9 4.9 94.6 94.0 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 3.1 4.5 3.8 3.4 87.2 86.4 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.3 8.4 9.3 5.0 96.0 95.2 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------