***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.5 4.9 1.9 74.4 69.9 0.5 2.1 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 3.7 4.3 4.8 2.1 76.9 72.3 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 5.6 5.9 4.6 2.0 75.9 71.2 1.4 3.2 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 0.7 1.3 2.4 1.9 76.4 71.2 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 2.8 3.2 2.6 1.8 75.5 70.7 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 2.2 2.8 1.4 2.0 77.7 73.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 3.7 4.3 4.8 2.2 77.0 72.3 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 -1.7 -1.3 1.9 2.1 76.3 72.7 -6.1 -4.3 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 3.6 4.0 3.2 1.8 74.4 69.9 0.1 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 3.0 3.3 2.4 2.1 75.5 71.5 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.9 75.4 71.1 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.9 75.0 71.2 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 2.5 2.9 1.8 1.9 75.4 71.1 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 3.6 4.2 3.5 2.2 77.5 73.3 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 3.3 3.6 2.9 1.8 75.5 70.2 0.1 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 3.3 3.8 2.1 1.9 76.1 71.6 0.0 1.4 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 3.3 4.0 4.6 2.2 77.0 72.3 -0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 0.8 1.1 2.1 2.4 76.5 73.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 3.5 4.0 4.7 2.1 77.0 72.4 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.2 2.7 78.7 75.5 -5.6 -3.7 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 3.5 3.9 4.1 1.8 74.1 69.5 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 2.8 3.5 4.5 2.1 77.0 72.4 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 3.3 3.8 4.4 2.0 77.4 72.8 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 2.5 3.0 3.3 2.2 76.8 72.6 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 3.6 4.0 3.3 1.9 75.6 70.8 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 76.6 72.1 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 4.3 4.7 4.2 2.0 75.1 70.5 -0.4 1.6 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 1.9 2.3 2.6 1.9 76.5 71.2 -1.4 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.6 77.9 74.6 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 4.2 4.7 4.8 2.1 76.4 71.8 -0.1 1.7 3.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------