***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 3.3 4.7 4.6 2.1 88.3 80.2 0.7 1.8 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 2.9 4.7 4.3 2.3 90.2 81.5 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 4.7 6.3 4.2 2.1 89.6 81.3 1.9 3.0 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 -0.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 88.7 81.0 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 2.3 3.6 2.2 2.1 87.6 80.5 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 1.6 2.7 0.4 1.7 84.5 79.1 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 2.7 4.3 4.3 2.2 89.2 80.7 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -2.3 -1.0 1.2 2.1 87.4 81.8 -5.0 -3.9 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 2.9 4.1 2.8 2.0 86.7 79.5 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 2.4 3.6 1.8 2.1 87.0 80.9 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 2.2 3.6 1.9 2.0 87.4 81.2 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 1.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 86.2 80.7 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 1.9 2.8 1.0 1.7 83.3 78.0 -0.8 0.3 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 3.1 4.5 2.9 2.1 89.4 81.7 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 2.5 4.1 2.6 2.1 88.8 80.7 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 2.9 4.1 1.4 1.9 86.1 80.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 2.5 4.1 4.3 2.3 90.1 81.3 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 0.7 1.7 1.2 2.1 86.1 80.4 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 2.8 4.5 4.3 2.2 90.6 81.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 2.1 86.1 80.8 -4.7 -3.4 -2.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 2.8 4.2 3.7 2.0 87.4 79.7 0.1 1.3 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 2.3 3.9 4.2 2.2 90.4 81.4 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 2.6 4.2 3.9 2.2 91.0 82.4 0.2 1.2 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 2.3 3.3 2.6 2.1 87.9 81.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 2.9 4.3 2.9 2.1 88.2 80.3 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 1.9 2.8 1.3 1.8 85.0 79.5 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 3.4 5.0 3.7 2.0 87.3 79.4 0.4 1.6 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 1.4 2.8 2.1 2.1 88.4 81.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 0.6 1.8 0.8 2.1 86.0 80.6 -2.5 -1.2 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 3.2 5.0 4.4 2.2 89.9 81.3 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------