***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 14.8 17.5 14.7 4.0 91.4 89.4 9.5 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 13.6 16.9 15.0 4.4 93.8 92.3 8.3 10.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 15.0 18.0 15.0 4.3 92.1 90.2 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 8.5 9.6 10.6 2.5 79.7 77.0 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 14.9 16.6 12.8 3.6 86.4 84.1 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 14.3 15.9 12.0 3.7 85.9 84.0 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 13.3 16.8 14.9 4.4 94.2 92.8 8.2 10.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 6.9 8.4 12.0 3.8 88.2 86.9 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 15.6 17.7 14.1 4.0 88.9 86.8 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 14.4 16.4 13.2 4.1 89.1 87.5 9.4 11.3 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.2 17.1 13.1 3.9 87.5 85.4 9.9 11.9 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 15.0 16.7 12.3 3.7 87.3 85.9 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.0 16.8 13.1 4.0 88.6 87.3 9.9 11.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 15.9 19.6 15.6 5.1 93.6 92.3 9.9 12.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.5 11.9 11.2 2.0 75.9 73.6 7.8 9.4 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 15.6 17.5 12.9 3.9 87.6 85.6 10.3 12.3 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 12.9 16.4 14.7 4.4 95.1 93.7 8.0 9.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 13.4 15.8 13.6 4.9 91.8 90.6 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 14.3 17.7 15.1 4.4 93.8 92.3 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 12.0 14.5 11.5 4.5 91.5 90.7 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 15.1 17.3 14.5 3.9 89.3 87.1 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 13.8 17.7 14.9 4.5 95.1 93.7 8.5 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.2 17.6 15.4 4.6 93.9 92.4 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 16.0 19.1 15.0 4.9 92.5 91.1 10.3 12.4 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 13.7 15.6 13.0 3.4 87.3 85.1 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 13.8 14.8 11.5 3.2 85.1 84.3 9.4 11.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 14.8 17.4 14.2 4.0 91.1 89.3 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.4 11.9 11.1 2.4 77.8 75.3 8.4 9.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 11.6 14.8 13.4 5.3 93.5 92.7 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 13.6 16.7 15.0 4.3 93.3 91.7 8.5 10.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------