***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.9 12.7 10.4 1.9 73.6 68.3 7.4 9.5 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.8 10.2 1.9 74.2 68.5 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.3 13.2 10.5 2.0 74.5 68.8 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 6.5 7.0 8.1 1.6 70.6 65.7 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.8 8.8 2.0 73.1 67.8 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.5 12.1 8.3 2.1 73.1 68.8 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.6 10.1 1.9 74.1 68.6 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 4.6 5.7 8.7 2.6 77.6 73.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.9 14.0 9.7 2.2 74.3 68.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.2 13.5 9.3 2.5 76.7 71.6 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.6 13.5 8.9 2.2 74.4 69.4 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.5 13.7 9.0 2.3 76.2 71.7 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.6 13.5 8.7 2.3 75.2 71.0 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 13.2 14.7 10.4 2.6 77.6 71.3 7.9 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.3 8.0 1.3 67.9 63.6 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.6 8.6 2.1 73.2 68.6 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.4 11.1 10.0 1.9 74.1 68.2 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.9 12.3 9.5 2.9 79.1 73.8 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.4 12.3 10.4 2.0 74.7 68.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 9.4 11.0 8.1 3.0 81.0 76.4 4.1 6.4 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 12.3 13.3 10.0 2.0 73.7 68.2 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.2 12.0 10.1 1.9 74.8 68.6 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.4 12.4 10.7 2.2 75.8 69.5 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.2 14.5 10.3 2.6 77.5 71.6 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.9 9.0 1.9 73.2 68.2 7.1 9.1 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.6 8.7 2.3 76.8 72.9 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.9 9.8 2.0 74.0 68.9 7.8 9.9 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 11.3 11.5 8.1 1.5 68.9 64.3 6.6 8.9 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 9.3 10.9 9.1 3.1 80.5 75.4 3.9 6.3 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.8 10.4 1.9 74.1 68.5 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------