***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.6 8.0 7.6 -0.1 49.1 50.7 6.2 8.2 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 8.1 7.5 0.2 52.6 52.8 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.7 9.3 7.7 0.1 50.9 51.8 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.5 2.4 5.3 -0.3 45.6 48.2 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.6 8.8 6.0 -0.2 48.0 49.9 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.9 5.6 -0.2 47.8 50.6 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.6 7.9 7.4 0.1 51.7 52.2 6.0 7.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.4 5.9 0.2 52.5 53.0 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.1 9.5 6.8 -0.1 49.2 50.6 7.7 9.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.9 6.4 0.1 51.2 51.9 6.9 8.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.6 9.2 6.1 0.0 49.9 51.2 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.9 9.3 6.2 0.1 51.8 52.8 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.5 9.2 6.0 0.0 50.6 52.5 7.1 9.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 9.8 7.5 0.4 54.6 53.5 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.5 5.4 -0.5 43.6 46.8 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.2 9.6 5.8 -0.1 48.8 50.7 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.6 7.4 0.3 53.5 52.9 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 6.9 6.4 0.3 53.1 52.9 5.1 6.7 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.0 8.6 7.7 0.3 53.4 53.2 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.3 5.0 0.4 54.7 54.4 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.6 9.0 7.2 -0.1 49.0 50.5 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.4 7.6 0.4 55.3 54.0 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.0 8.6 7.9 0.3 54.3 53.7 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.2 9.9 7.3 0.3 53.0 52.7 7.6 9.5 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.9 7.9 6.1 -0.2 48.0 50.0 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.3 8.7 5.9 0.1 51.4 53.9 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.6 9.0 6.9 -0.1 49.1 50.8 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.1 5.5 -0.4 44.7 47.5 5.9 7.6 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.2 5.9 0.3 54.2 53.8 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.8 8.1 7.6 0.1 51.6 52.2 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------