***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 8.9 8.8 6.7 1.6 71.1 67.6 4.9 6.6 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 8.0 7.8 6.6 1.6 71.4 67.8 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 9.4 9.3 6.8 1.7 71.4 67.4 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.3 4.5 1.4 69.6 65.3 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 9.1 9.2 5.1 1.6 70.7 66.3 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 9.1 8.8 4.6 1.5 67.9 64.6 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 7.7 7.5 6.5 1.6 71.4 68.0 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 3.9 3.9 4.9 1.7 70.6 67.0 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.2 6.0 1.7 71.4 67.0 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 9.4 9.4 5.4 1.7 71.0 67.0 5.3 7.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 9.3 9.3 5.1 1.6 70.2 66.2 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.9 9.7 5.1 1.6 69.7 66.4 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.6 9.3 4.9 1.5 68.5 65.7 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 10.0 10.0 6.4 1.8 70.8 66.8 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.5 4.7 1.2 67.6 63.8 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 10.1 9.8 4.8 1.5 68.8 65.2 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 7.2 7.1 6.5 1.7 72.1 67.9 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 7.5 7.4 5.4 1.8 70.9 67.4 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 8.4 8.3 6.8 1.7 71.5 67.6 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 7.1 7.0 4.1 1.7 70.9 67.9 2.4 4.4 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 9.3 9.3 6.4 1.7 71.6 67.2 5.2 7.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 8.0 7.9 6.6 1.7 72.0 67.4 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 8.4 8.3 6.9 1.7 71.5 67.3 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 10.3 10.2 6.3 1.8 71.1 67.2 6.1 7.9 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 7.9 8.0 5.3 1.6 72.1 67.6 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 9.3 9.0 4.8 1.4 68.4 66.3 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.1 6.1 1.6 71.8 67.9 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.6 8.3 4.7 1.3 67.8 64.0 4.7 6.5 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 7.1 6.9 4.9 1.8 71.1 67.9 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 8.1 7.9 6.7 1.6 71.2 67.7 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------