***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 10.9 12.3 9.8 1.8 84.1 75.6 7.5 8.9 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 10.1 11.7 9.8 2.0 86.7 77.5 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 11.4 12.9 10.0 2.0 85.4 76.5 7.9 9.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 5.6 6.0 7.1 1.3 75.2 68.8 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 11.4 12.3 8.2 1.8 80.9 73.3 7.8 9.3 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 10.7 11.6 7.6 1.8 80.6 73.9 7.3 8.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 10.0 11.5 9.7 2.0 86.5 77.5 6.6 8.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 4.2 5.3 7.9 2.1 84.4 77.0 1.5 2.7 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 12.0 13.3 9.1 2.0 83.2 75.1 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 11.1 12.6 8.6 2.1 84.6 76.8 7.7 9.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 11.6 12.8 8.3 1.9 82.3 74.8 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 11.5 12.7 8.1 1.9 83.0 76.0 8.0 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 11.6 12.8 8.2 2.0 83.3 76.6 8.0 9.5 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 12.0 14.0 10.0 2.5 88.5 79.2 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 9.3 9.2 7.3 1.0 71.0 65.8 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 12.1 13.1 8.0 1.8 81.4 74.4 8.5 10.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 9.5 11.1 9.6 2.1 87.4 78.1 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 9.4 11.0 8.7 2.4 87.7 79.6 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 10.6 12.3 10.0 2.1 87.2 77.7 7.1 8.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 8.6 10.6 7.2 2.4 88.4 80.9 5.0 6.5 7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 11.5 12.8 9.5 1.9 83.3 74.9 7.9 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 10.2 12.0 9.8 2.1 88.1 78.2 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 10.5 12.3 10.2 2.2 87.8 78.0 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 12.3 14.1 9.7 2.4 87.4 78.7 8.8 10.3 11.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.3 8.3 1.7 81.8 73.8 7.0 8.4 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 10.9 11.6 7.7 1.8 81.9 76.1 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 11.2 12.6 9.3 1.9 84.3 76.0 7.9 9.3 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 9.8 9.9 7.3 1.2 73.0 67.3 6.9 8.2 9.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 8.2 10.3 8.3 2.6 89.5 81.6 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 10.2 11.7 9.9 2.0 86.1 77.0 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------