***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.2 5.0 35.2 32.6 28.9 3.2 6.3 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.7 35.1 31.1 28.1 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.9 3.9 5.1 35.0 31.3 28.4 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 11.0 11.4 11.9 80.1 56.3 52.7 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.5 6.7 7.5 49.2 39.9 36.6 5.0 9.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.9 8.3 7.9 65.5 49.6 42.1 4.7 8.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.5 4.6 34.5 30.3 27.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.8 8.4 6.8 46.8 38.6 34.0 6.8 12.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.6 5.9 39.4 34.1 30.7 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.5 5.2 6.4 42.1 35.6 31.7 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.6 6.2 44.7 39.1 34.9 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.3 6.3 47.4 39.9 35.0 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.4 6.8 50.4 41.4 36.1 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.3 4.2 5.8 34.2 29.0 26.4 5.1 9.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 8.3 13.7 16.7 114.5 68.6 63.4 3.2 6.8 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 6.6 6.9 51.7 42.3 38.0 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.7 4.9 37.1 32.8 29.0 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 5.1 6.8 42.1 35.2 31.7 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.5 3.5 4.9 35.3 30.9 28.1 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.5 10.3 56.4 41.8 37.7 5.9 11.4 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.5 36.3 33.9 30.3 5.0 9.2 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.8 5.6 39.7 34.8 30.5 4.5 8.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.7 3.5 5.0 33.9 29.2 26.6 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.3 4.1 5.9 37.1 32.2 29.2 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.0 6.5 40.6 35.4 32.2 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.2 9.1 9.0 67.4 50.2 44.0 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 2.8 5.2 34.3 30.7 27.6 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 9.0 11.6 13.3 97.5 62.1 57.8 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.5 7.3 43.1 34.3 31.1 7.1 13.1 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.0 4.7 34.2 30.2 27.5 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------