***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.4 8.4 70.7 51.9 42.1 5.4 9.0 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 8.7 8.4 75.9 53.7 42.4 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.1 9.7 8.6 71.8 51.7 42.0 4.9 9.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.8 11.9 10.4 72.1 53.0 40.8 5.6 10.9 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.1 9.6 10.1 70.8 51.3 41.9 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.0 14.8 12.1 82.1 55.9 43.6 6.4 12.2 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.4 8.4 77.0 54.7 43.5 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.1 15.9 10.1 66.8 49.5 40.5 8.4 16.1 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.8 10.1 69.8 50.9 41.9 4.1 8.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.5 9.9 10.5 69.2 50.4 41.2 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.5 9.8 72.6 51.5 42.0 5.4 10.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.6 11.5 9.3 68.8 50.0 40.9 5.2 11.5 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.9 14.3 10.9 78.1 54.5 43.6 6.2 12.3 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.9 14.1 10.4 70.2 50.0 40.1 7.7 14.1 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 15.0 13.1 85.0 58.4 45.7 4.6 10.7 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.1 12.5 10.4 76.7 53.5 42.9 5.7 11.1 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.2 10.6 8.8 82.6 56.6 43.9 4.9 8.8 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 11.4 11.2 68.0 49.2 39.8 5.8 11.7 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.5 10.8 8.4 73.3 52.1 41.2 5.6 10.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 12.5 13.1 67.4 49.4 40.2 6.0 12.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.0 9.2 70.2 51.4 41.3 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.3 8.9 77.4 54.2 42.8 5.7 10.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.1 9.1 8.5 68.9 49.4 39.4 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.1 10.7 10.0 68.5 49.6 40.1 5.5 11.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.5 10.4 74.8 53.7 42.8 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.5 14.2 10.5 77.5 55.2 44.0 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.4 9.6 74.3 53.4 43.2 4.0 7.5 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.8 11.6 78.0 55.2 42.9 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.6 17.3 11.7 67.0 49.0 39.8 9.7 17.8 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.1 8.3 73.9 53.0 42.4 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------