***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.5 13.5 98.6 62.9 48.4 2.6 5.4 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.4 12.5 93.0 60.9 48.3 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.9 13.7 98.5 62.8 49.9 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.3 13.4 14.3 96.8 62.2 48.3 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.2 14.0 99.3 62.9 50.2 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.5 13.7 112.6 67.6 52.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.9 12.2 90.9 59.7 47.0 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.7 15.4 14.6 107.1 65.4 51.4 6.6 10.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.1 14.7 102.8 64.1 51.7 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.8 15.2 105.1 64.8 51.8 4.2 7.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.3 13.2 102.8 64.1 50.3 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.1 13.0 13.1 111.9 67.1 51.6 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.1 13.6 13.5 114.7 68.1 52.5 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.4 15.5 96.3 61.5 50.8 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.9 15.4 105.1 65.6 49.5 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.2 13.0 108.3 66.0 51.5 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.4 11.9 93.1 60.9 48.4 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.3 16.7 104.8 64.6 51.8 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.7 12.8 94.9 61.6 49.5 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 13.8 18.2 97.8 62.3 49.8 5.1 9.5 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.0 14.0 100.0 63.1 50.3 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.6 12.6 95.8 61.9 50.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.6 13.2 96.0 61.6 50.3 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.8 15.5 102.1 63.6 51.4 4.2 7.7 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.8 14.9 97.6 62.3 48.6 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.8 13.4 117.0 68.8 51.9 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.2 14.4 97.5 62.2 48.0 2.7 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.5 14.3 102.7 64.4 49.8 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 20.6 17.5 102.0 63.6 51.0 7.6 13.8 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.6 12.8 93.2 61.0 48.2 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------