***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.4 7.9 102.5 64.1 47.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.0 7.4 104.2 65.4 49.4 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 11.9 8.0 100.3 63.3 49.2 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.1 9.2 87.3 58.3 44.8 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.9 8.5 84.0 57.4 44.6 4.0 7.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.7 8.2 72.5 52.9 41.2 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.7 7.5 106.1 66.0 48.8 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 12.0 8.0 74.6 53.5 43.4 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.8 8.7 86.7 58.4 45.7 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.4 8.7 81.0 56.3 45.3 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.9 7.8 80.0 56.1 44.6 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.7 7.2 73.5 52.9 42.6 3.7 8.6 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.0 7.6 71.7 52.9 42.0 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.1 9.4 94.1 61.1 47.4 5.4 9.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 14.9 10.4 94.8 61.6 46.3 3.6 8.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.9 7.7 76.3 54.7 43.2 3.7 7.6 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.6 7.0 99.2 63.8 48.2 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.7 9.4 81.7 55.8 45.5 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.4 7.5 101.7 64.2 49.0 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.7 9.8 73.4 53.1 43.4 4.4 8.8 15.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.4 8.2 91.7 60.2 46.2 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.2 7.2 94.4 61.8 46.9 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.5 7.9 100.0 63.2 48.3 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.3 9.0 89.9 59.3 47.3 4.7 8.6 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.0 8.7 92.5 60.6 46.1 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.6 7.7 74.0 54.0 42.8 2.9 6.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.3 8.4 98.7 62.9 46.9 3.9 7.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.5 87.6 58.7 45.2 3.0 6.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.3 9.6 78.8 54.6 44.7 6.2 11.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.5 7.7 106.0 65.8 49.8 3.6 6.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------