***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.2 26.8 34.9 73.3 35.9 34.0 24.9 36.4 50.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 20.8 26.4 33.1 73.3 36.5 35.1 24.2 35.3 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 29.3 33.1 35.4 73.0 34.8 34.0 31.6 44.8 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 37.5 48.6 45.7 83.8 46.1 43.1 38.6 52.0 67.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 30.7 34.7 40.0 74.8 37.5 36.5 31.3 44.8 60.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 30.3 39.4 42.0 83.3 44.5 41.6 30.2 44.2 60.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 20.4 25.6 32.7 73.2 36.4 34.8 23.7 34.2 46.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 41.2 46.0 39.5 73.1 35.8 35.4 42.9 62.0 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 28.3 30.5 39.4 73.2 35.5 35.2 28.9 41.2 55.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 34.0 37.5 40.8 73.4 35.5 35.2 35.6 49.2 64.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 29.0 34.5 37.1 74.0 37.2 36.3 30.8 46.4 65.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 34.4 38.5 35.8 74.3 37.3 36.6 34.4 51.9 72.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 30.0 37.2 38.8 77.8 40.5 38.8 30.1 47.1 68.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 40.4 42.0 41.1 71.0 31.3 31.9 43.4 58.0 74.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 62.3 63.7 55.6 99.8 57.9 53.2 36.0 54.0 75.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 30.6 36.4 38.0 77.5 40.4 38.7 30.4 44.7 61.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 24.8 30.2 32.7 74.5 39.1 37.1 26.6 37.2 49.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 37.0 39.3 44.0 73.4 34.5 34.7 38.0 51.9 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.5 31.5 33.5 72.8 35.4 34.4 29.9 41.5 55.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 39.0 42.9 51.4 73.9 36.1 35.7 39.7 57.6 78.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 26.9 29.8 36.9 72.0 34.3 34.0 28.8 41.7 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 31.5 35.8 34.2 73.9 38.1 36.9 32.4 44.3 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 26.9 28.8 34.6 71.1 32.8 32.7 28.8 39.6 51.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 35.4 37.1 40.5 72.4 33.4 33.6 36.8 51.1 67.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 23.2 27.3 40.5 74.1 36.8 34.9 24.9 36.0 49.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 31.0 40.8 40.6 83.3 44.9 42.2 30.5 45.5 63.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 20.4 25.2 37.6 73.2 35.6 33.8 23.4 36.1 51.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 53.4 46.6 48.8 91.2 51.5 47.8 30.9 45.3 62.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 53.0 56.9 46.0 72.3 33.8 34.0 55.8 75.8 98.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 21.6 26.7 33.6 72.8 35.5 34.1 25.4 36.5 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------