***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 3.0 3.6 1.8 69.1 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 2.8 3.0 3.1 1.7 69.4 66.1 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.7 3.2 1.8 69.8 66.5 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 -0.9 -0.6 1.2 1.8 69.6 66.8 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 2.5 2.6 1.5 1.8 68.6 66.0 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 1.8 1.9 -0.1 1.7 69.4 67.0 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 2.6 2.7 3.1 1.8 69.3 66.0 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.5 0.5 1.9 68.5 66.3 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.8 68.0 65.6 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 2.6 2.6 1.1 1.9 68.0 65.7 -0.6 1.0 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 2.3 2.5 1.3 1.9 69.6 67.1 -1.2 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.9 69.9 67.5 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 2.0 2.0 0.6 1.8 69.4 67.0 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 3.0 3.0 1.9 1.8 67.7 64.9 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 2.8 3.1 1.6 1.8 71.4 68.1 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 3.2 3.3 0.8 1.8 70.0 67.4 -0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 2.2 2.3 2.9 1.6 68.0 64.8 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.9 67.2 64.8 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 2.8 2.9 3.0 1.7 69.6 66.3 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 -1.6 -1.9 -0.8 1.7 65.2 63.1 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 2.9 3.0 2.9 1.8 68.5 65.5 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 2.2 2.2 2.8 1.6 67.6 64.6 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 2.7 2.8 2.8 1.7 69.5 66.3 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.9 68.6 65.9 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.7 68.7 65.8 -0.1 1.5 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.2 0.6 1.7 68.6 66.5 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 3.7 3.8 2.8 1.8 68.9 65.8 0.0 1.8 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.8 71.0 68.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.9 66.6 64.2 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 3.2 3.3 3.2 1.8 69.8 66.4 0.0 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------