***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 2.9 3.8 1.5 73.6 70.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 2.5 2.6 3.2 1.3 71.5 68.2 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.5 3.4 1.4 72.9 69.4 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.6 76.2 72.4 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 73.3 70.0 -0.5 0.6 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.9 0.3 1.7 78.3 74.7 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 2.4 2.5 3.2 1.3 72.3 68.8 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -2.8 -2.6 0.6 1.4 70.5 67.8 -5.1 -4.0 -3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.5 73.1 69.9 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.4 70.7 68.0 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.5 73.4 70.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 72.4 69.5 -1.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.5 74.0 70.8 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.1 67.6 65.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 2.2 3.0 2.3 1.8 80.2 75.7 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 2.5 2.9 1.1 1.6 75.2 71.8 0.1 1.2 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 2.0 2.1 3.0 1.2 69.5 66.4 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 67.9 65.6 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.5 3.2 1.3 71.4 68.2 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 -2.3 -2.3 -0.7 1.1 66.0 63.8 -4.9 -3.6 -2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.7 3.3 1.5 73.1 69.8 0.0 1.1 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 1.7 1.7 2.9 1.0 67.7 65.0 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.3 2.9 1.2 71.4 68.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 9999.0 2.3 1.9 1.3 69.8 67.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.5 74.2 70.5 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.4 73.1 70.2 -0.5 0.5 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.4 3.2 1.5 73.8 70.1 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.7 77.7 73.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 1.2 66.8 64.5 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 2.8 3.0 3.4 1.4 72.5 69.1 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------