***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 9.1 10.0 1.0 59.7 58.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.7 9.6 9.6 0.9 59.6 58.3 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.1 10.8 10.1 0.9 59.1 57.9 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.9 8.2 0.9 59.0 57.6 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.5 8.8 0.9 58.4 57.3 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.1 10.0 8.2 1.1 59.6 58.5 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.4 9.5 9.6 1.0 60.4 58.8 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.5 3.1 8.0 0.7 56.9 56.3 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.9 11.4 9.4 0.9 58.1 57.2 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.0 10.3 8.6 0.8 57.1 56.5 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.3 10.8 8.8 1.0 58.7 57.7 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.2 10.7 8.6 0.9 58.5 57.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.4 11.0 8.5 1.0 59.5 58.3 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.3 9.5 0.9 58.0 57.1 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.2 8.3 1.0 60.1 58.4 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.5 8.6 1.0 59.3 58.1 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.0 9.3 0.9 59.6 58.1 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.7 8.3 0.7 56.1 55.8 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.1 9.9 9.9 0.9 59.2 58.0 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.8 6.4 0.5 54.3 54.4 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 9.8 0.9 58.6 57.6 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 9.4 0.8 58.6 57.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 10.1 0.9 58.9 57.8 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.9 11.4 9.5 0.9 57.7 57.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.9 8.8 0.9 59.4 58.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.4 10.3 8.2 1.0 60.0 59.0 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.8 9.4 1.0 59.8 58.6 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.9 8.5 1.0 59.4 57.9 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.8 7.6 0.6 55.7 55.5 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.7 9.6 9.8 0.9 59.6 58.3 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------