***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.9 12.7 127.6 71.9 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.2 11.0 113.2 67.9 53.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 19.9 28.2 15.7 156.9 79.4 65.5 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.4 25.2 18.4 152.2 78.1 64.8 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 19.8 28.1 19.5 164.8 81.0 69.0 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.2 21.5 16.3 131.2 73.2 61.3 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.6 10.1 106.7 66.1 52.7 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 25.7 37.4 22.8 182.3 83.7 72.9 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 19.0 27.6 19.7 176.9 83.2 71.8 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 23.8 37.4 23.0 191.1 85.7 75.5 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 22.2 33.1 20.6 180.6 83.3 71.7 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 22.3 33.2 19.7 167.5 81.1 69.1 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.1 24.1 18.2 140.1 75.3 63.6 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 24.2 37.6 22.8 182.7 84.7 73.2 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.5 24.0 18.7 154.0 78.4 62.3 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 13.2 25.4 18.2 152.0 78.0 65.4 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.5 10.2 104.3 65.5 50.8 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 22.9 34.4 23.7 185.9 85.7 76.4 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.6 19.8 12.9 128.5 72.2 57.3 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 25.6 32.9 24.5 162.9 79.9 71.9 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 19.1 26.2 17.1 163.8 80.8 68.1 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.9 11.9 112.4 67.9 53.4 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 11.8 23.0 16.5 155.1 79.0 64.7 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 20.4 32.3 21.6 183.0 85.1 74.2 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.6 15.5 14.7 123.4 70.6 59.4 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 23.2 18.1 140.0 75.2 60.4 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.4 12.6 113.6 67.3 56.1 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.1 26.3 19.0 159.8 79.7 65.4 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 31.1 43.4 23.9 177.7 84.0 75.6 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.4 15.8 11.8 121.3 70.1 55.8 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------