***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 4.7 14.7 109.7 66.6 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.5 9.1 14.7 103.4 64.7 54.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.5 15.2 109.5 66.5 56.0 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 17.2 16.5 16.1 115.9 68.8 60.1 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.1 16.2 119.5 69.9 60.9 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.8 14.0 17.6 131.2 73.2 62.7 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.4 14.7 107.6 66.1 56.1 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.8 16.5 16.7 114.7 68.4 60.4 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.7 16.4 119.6 69.6 60.1 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.9 14.8 17.0 117.0 68.8 60.5 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.7 13.9 15.5 118.7 69.6 60.9 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 16.6 15.2 116.1 69.1 60.9 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.1 16.7 123.2 71.0 62.2 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.6 18.1 104.3 64.6 55.2 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.1 19.0 15.7 111.2 67.5 58.2 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.6 14.8 16.1 123.9 71.3 62.5 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.4 14.8 102.7 64.7 55.2 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 16.8 19.0 115.5 68.3 60.1 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.2 15.0 102.2 64.2 54.1 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 13.4 19.0 22.6 117.0 69.0 60.5 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.0 12.6 15.7 117.1 68.9 58.0 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.5 15.4 99.4 63.3 54.0 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.0 15.8 103.3 64.5 54.3 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.2 15.6 17.4 110.1 66.6 57.4 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.5 16.1 113.2 67.7 58.2 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.3 16.5 118.8 70.1 61.3 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.1 15.8 111.9 67.2 57.3 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 16.8 16.6 16.1 117.9 69.5 60.2 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 18.0 25.0 20.5 115.1 68.3 59.7 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.6 14.7 105.2 65.1 55.0 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------