***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 11.1 11.8 107.8 66.3 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.8 11.7 114.7 68.6 55.9 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.9 12.0 104.8 65.2 53.1 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 11.2 89.5 60.6 50.4 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.7 11.1 89.5 59.7 49.5 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.2 11.6 89.7 60.2 46.9 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.2 11.8 119.8 70.1 57.5 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.6 12.6 97.4 62.3 50.9 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.9 11.5 90.8 59.5 49.3 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.0 12.1 93.0 60.5 50.2 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.8 10.6 91.3 60.6 49.6 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.4 11.2 96.5 62.1 49.7 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.9 11.8 95.9 62.0 49.3 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.7 13.4 99.2 63.2 52.2 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.4 11.1 88.1 60.5 49.3 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.9 10.8 92.1 60.9 48.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.1 11.3 113.5 68.3 55.8 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.5 13.9 97.4 61.9 51.5 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.6 11.8 110.4 67.2 54.6 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.0 17.8 106.7 65.2 53.4 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.3 11.5 95.9 61.8 50.2 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.8 11.7 109.9 67.4 54.5 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.1 12.1 104.6 65.2 52.8 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.0 12.9 98.0 62.4 51.7 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.1 12.5 103.2 64.7 52.9 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.8 11.8 94.2 61.6 49.0 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.4 12.5 109.6 66.8 54.5 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.1 10.7 85.3 59.3 48.4 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 15.8 15.5 103.0 64.0 52.7 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.1 11.8 113.9 68.3 55.5 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------