***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 44.6 53.5 115.3 67.1 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 40.4 46.2 51.1 110.5 64.3 56.6 23.8 34.8 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 63.8 64.5 57.0 118.9 69.2 60.7 31.4 44.9 60.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 70.2 70.7 61.5 119.4 69.3 61.4 37.6 51.3 66.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 64.9 66.4 61.6 121.1 70.3 62.5 31.1 44.8 61.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 51.5 61.4 59.6 113.2 65.9 59.5 31.1 45.1 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 37.7 45.2 50.6 112.8 65.7 58.0 23.0 33.3 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 92.5 93.4 67.2 122.3 71.1 64.5 43.1 62.2 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 59.9 62.2 62.4 123.0 71.6 62.9 28.4 41.0 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 71.4 74.0 67.2 124.1 72.3 64.6 35.9 50.1 66.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 71.2 74.9 60.3 123.8 71.7 64.1 30.9 46.6 66.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 78.8 79.6 59.5 120.0 69.6 62.9 35.4 52.9 73.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 55.1 69.6 60.1 114.5 66.7 60.5 30.1 47.2 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 65.3 78.9 68.5 116.3 68.1 60.1 43.9 59.1 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 81.3 82.5 63.6 121.0 70.0 60.3 36.0 54.0 75.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 52.1 65.9 58.7 118.2 68.7 61.8 30.4 45.0 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 40.6 45.6 49.7 108.6 63.2 55.7 26.4 36.4 47.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 71.9 74.6 72.7 121.1 71.0 63.6 38.3 52.3 68.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 47.3 53.8 53.1 111.4 64.9 56.9 30.0 41.6 55.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 85.1 81.7 84.9 117.1 68.5 63.2 39.3 56.9 77.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 60.5 62.2 58.9 121.7 70.7 62.1 28.3 41.3 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 48.0 53.1 52.4 107.3 62.4 55.8 32.1 43.3 56.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.2 53.2 57.7 114.4 66.7 58.4 29.4 40.2 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 57.1 73.7 66.6 119.6 70.1 61.7 36.6 51.3 68.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 40.9 49.6 58.9 114.6 66.7 58.7 24.3 35.5 48.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 52.4 64.5 61.3 114.4 66.7 59.8 29.8 45.2 63.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 42.1 51.0 56.1 113.1 65.8 57.6 22.9 35.6 51.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 67.5 67.9 61.5 119.8 69.4 61.3 31.4 46.1 63.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 103.5 105.3 77.6 119.3 70.0 63.2 54.7 75.3 98.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 41.3 48.6 52.3 112.9 65.8 57.8 24.5 35.6 48.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------