***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.7 9.6 10.4 6.2 98.0 96.9 2.0 3.3 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 5.1 8.8 9.3 5.4 96.8 95.1 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.0 11.2 10.0 5.6 97.6 96.2 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.4 5.7 6.5 4.7 94.8 94.0 -2.4 -0.6 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 4.3 8.0 8.5 5.7 97.4 96.3 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 3.5 6.1 5.0 4.7 95.1 94.2 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 4.8 8.4 9.6 5.8 97.1 95.4 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.8 5.4 4.7 94.5 93.4 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 5.1 8.9 8.1 5.4 97.4 96.2 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 4.5 7.3 6.1 4.8 95.4 94.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.3 7.4 5.1 96.2 95.1 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 3.4 6.3 6.6 5.2 96.0 94.9 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 3.6 6.3 5.9 4.6 95.1 93.6 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 5.2 7.8 7.0 4.5 95.4 93.7 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 4.0 6.1 7.6 4.1 92.8 91.9 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 4.7 7.5 6.6 5.0 95.8 94.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 4.5 7.1 8.6 5.1 95.6 93.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.6 4.7 5.1 4.3 93.9 92.4 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.3 9.2 5.3 96.9 95.2 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 1.0 3.8 4.2 4.5 93.4 91.9 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 5.3 9.5 9.5 5.7 97.8 96.6 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 4.0 6.5 8.5 4.7 95.2 93.0 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.5 8.9 5.1 97.2 95.6 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 4.2 6.8 7.2 4.8 95.7 94.1 0.9 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.8 8.5 9.9 6.1 97.9 97.0 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 3.6 6.3 6.3 5.2 96.2 95.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 6.3 11.7 10.5 6.5 98.2 97.2 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 3.1 5.2 6.4 4.3 92.7 91.8 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 3.4 6.3 4.6 4.5 93.7 92.3 -1.3 0.4 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.5 9.6 9.8 5.7 97.4 95.9 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------