***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 4.1 6.2 7.6 4.0 90.2 84.9 0.1 1.7 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 3.6 5.7 6.7 3.5 88.4 82.7 -0.8 1.0 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 5.5 7.5 7.1 3.6 88.6 83.3 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 1.0 3.8 4.9 4.0 90.7 86.8 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 3.0 4.7 5.7 4.0 88.8 84.9 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 2.5 4.4 3.3 3.9 89.9 86.6 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 3.6 5.7 6.8 3.6 88.1 82.7 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -1.6 -0.1 3.2 3.5 85.2 82.0 -6.3 -4.5 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 3.8 5.6 5.6 3.8 89.1 84.8 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 2.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 86.2 82.6 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 2.7 4.3 5.0 3.8 88.3 84.7 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 1.7 2.9 4.0 3.6 86.1 82.8 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 2.6 3.9 3.7 3.5 86.5 83.0 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 3.4 4.4 4.7 3.0 83.5 79.3 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 3.4 5.7 6.1 3.9 92.2 87.8 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 3.5 5.0 4.4 3.8 88.5 85.0 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 3.3 4.9 6.2 3.2 86.3 81.0 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 0.6 1.4 3.1 3.2 82.9 79.6 -2.5 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 3.3 5.3 6.6 3.4 88.4 82.6 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -1.3 -0.3 1.9 3.1 81.2 78.1 -6.2 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 3.5 5.6 6.7 3.8 89.0 84.2 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 2.8 4.2 6.1 2.9 85.5 80.2 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 3.0 4.8 6.4 3.3 88.4 82.7 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 2.3 3.4 4.7 3.2 85.1 80.8 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 3.6 5.7 7.0 4.2 90.7 86.2 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 2.7 3.8 3.5 3.4 85.4 82.3 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 4.4 6.9 7.3 4.1 89.8 84.8 -0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 2.1 4.0 4.9 3.8 90.1 86.2 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 1.2 2.4 2.5 3.2 82.4 79.1 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 4.1 6.4 7.1 3.7 89.3 83.6 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------