***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 3.5 5.9 6.2 3.6 95.6 92.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 3.1 5.2 5.4 3.2 93.8 89.9 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 4.9 7.2 5.9 3.3 94.8 91.0 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 0.0 2.4 3.2 3.3 94.0 90.4 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 2.5 4.7 4.1 3.5 94.6 91.0 -0.5 0.6 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 1.8 4.0 1.8 3.3 94.3 90.4 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 3.0 4.9 5.5 3.2 93.8 90.0 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -2.1 -0.4 2.0 3.1 92.0 88.4 -5.1 -4.0 -3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 3.2 5.2 4.2 3.3 94.6 90.7 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 2.6 4.3 2.6 3.1 92.7 88.9 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 2.4 4.4 3.4 3.3 93.8 90.1 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 1.6 3.5 2.7 3.2 93.1 89.5 -1.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 2.1 4.0 2.4 3.1 93.1 89.3 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 3.2 4.7 3.6 2.9 91.4 87.2 0.6 1.6 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 2.7 4.8 4.3 3.1 94.2 90.3 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 3.1 5.1 2.9 3.3 93.7 90.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 2.7 4.3 5.1 2.9 92.0 87.8 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 0.7 2.1 1.8 2.9 90.7 86.7 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 3.0 5.0 5.4 3.1 94.0 89.9 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 -1.4 0.2 0.8 2.9 89.9 86.0 -4.9 -3.6 -2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 3.1 5.3 5.3 3.4 95.1 91.3 0.0 1.1 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 2.4 3.9 5.0 2.7 91.6 87.2 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 2.7 4.6 5.2 3.0 94.0 89.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 2.4 3.8 3.5 3.0 92.5 88.3 0.0 0.9 1.7 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 3.1 5.5 5.4 3.7 96.0 92.7 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 2.0 3.8 2.5 3.3 94.1 90.5 -0.5 0.5 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 3.8 6.6 6.0 3.7 95.7 92.3 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 1.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 93.2 89.3 -1.5 -0.4 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 0.6 2.3 1.4 2.9 90.6 86.6 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 3.4 5.8 5.7 3.3 94.6 90.9 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------