***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 12.3 14.2 13.0 3.5 85.0 80.2 6.9 9.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.8 12.7 3.2 83.3 78.4 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 12.9 14.1 13.1 3.2 81.4 76.9 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 6.9 8.5 9.6 3.1 81.1 76.9 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 12.7 13.8 11.3 3.3 81.0 77.2 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.4 10.7 3.7 83.0 78.9 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 11.3 12.9 12.8 3.4 85.1 80.0 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 5.0 5.7 10.3 3.0 78.1 75.1 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 13.8 14.9 12.1 3.2 80.6 76.7 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.5 11.2 3.1 78.5 75.2 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 13.0 14.3 11.8 3.4 80.7 77.3 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 12.8 14.1 11.0 3.2 80.6 77.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 13.1 14.7 11.9 3.7 83.0 79.5 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 13.2 14.0 12.2 2.8 75.6 71.9 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.2 13.0 11.0 3.2 85.4 80.6 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 13.5 15.0 11.6 3.7 82.9 79.2 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 10.8 12.0 12.2 3.0 82.7 77.9 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.7 11.3 10.9 3.0 76.5 73.3 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.8 13.1 12.8 3.1 81.8 77.0 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 9.2 9.8 9.1 2.8 76.3 73.3 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 13.1 14.2 12.7 3.2 81.0 76.9 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.4 12.5 12.1 2.7 80.0 75.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 11.6 12.6 12.9 2.9 79.4 75.1 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 13.3 14.3 12.3 3.0 77.3 73.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 11.7 13.2 11.7 3.4 83.6 79.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 12.2 13.6 10.6 3.5 84.3 81.0 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 12.8 14.6 12.7 3.7 85.5 80.8 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 11.9 13.6 10.4 3.2 82.2 78.0 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 9.2 9.9 10.3 3.0 76.6 73.5 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 11.5 13.0 12.9 3.3 84.2 79.2 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------