***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 10.0 10.6 9.7 2.2 74.3 69.3 6.1 7.9 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.5 10.1 9.6 2.2 74.0 69.1 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.2 9.9 2.1 71.9 66.9 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 4.6 4.6 6.8 1.8 69.7 65.1 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.9 7.9 1.8 69.6 65.0 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.8 7.5 1.8 68.3 63.0 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.5 10.1 9.6 2.3 75.2 70.1 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 3.8 3.8 7.5 1.8 68.6 63.7 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.4 8.7 1.9 69.4 64.5 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.5 8.2 1.9 69.0 63.8 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.2 8.1 1.9 69.6 64.9 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.9 7.9 1.9 69.7 65.1 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.5 7.9 2.2 72.1 67.1 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.1 9.2 1.9 68.7 64.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.7 8.5 7.4 1.6 68.0 63.9 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.7 7.9 2.0 70.7 65.8 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.4 9.4 2.2 73.9 68.8 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.2 8.4 2.0 69.4 64.0 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 9.9 10.3 9.8 2.1 72.5 67.8 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.7 6.8 2.1 70.4 65.1 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.1 9.2 1.9 70.4 65.5 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.5 9.7 9.3 1.9 71.3 66.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.0 10.0 2.0 70.3 65.7 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.4 11.3 9.2 2.0 69.7 64.4 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 9.8 10.2 8.2 2.1 72.9 67.8 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.7 7.7 2.1 73.5 68.9 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.6 9.3 2.3 75.0 69.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.3 9.0 7.1 1.7 68.0 63.6 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.6 7.9 2.0 69.5 64.3 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.2 9.7 2.3 74.3 69.4 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------