***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.4 7.5 1.8 68.5 65.1 4.7 6.5 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.3 7.4 1.7 67.6 64.5 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.8 8.7 7.8 1.7 67.2 64.2 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 4.1 4.2 5.0 1.8 68.9 65.1 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.7 6.0 1.8 68.1 64.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.8 5.9 2.2 70.7 66.2 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.0 7.3 1.7 68.0 64.8 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.5 5.8 1.8 68.2 65.1 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.6 6.8 1.8 67.3 64.2 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.7 6.3 1.8 67.6 64.5 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.9 6.2 1.9 68.7 65.2 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.4 6.1 1.9 69.3 65.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.3 9.2 6.0 2.1 70.6 66.7 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 9.5 9.3 7.2 1.7 66.3 63.5 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.4 5.7 1.7 68.7 65.1 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.7 9.7 6.1 2.0 70.1 66.0 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.5 7.2 1.5 67.0 63.8 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.6 6.4 1.9 67.4 64.3 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.7 7.6 1.7 67.1 64.2 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.3 4.9 1.9 68.0 64.9 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 8.7 8.7 7.3 1.7 67.6 64.3 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.3 7.2 1.5 66.6 63.7 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.6 7.8 1.6 66.4 63.6 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 9.7 9.7 7.2 1.8 67.1 64.1 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.6 6.2 1.8 69.4 65.6 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 8.8 8.8 5.9 2.1 71.6 67.7 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.5 8.6 7.1 1.8 68.9 65.3 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.3 5.4 1.8 68.7 64.9 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.2 5.9 1.9 67.5 64.4 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.4 7.4 1.7 68.0 64.9 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------