***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 11.3 13.5 11.5 3.2 92.4 87.9 7.2 8.7 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 10.2 12.0 11.3 2.9 90.2 85.5 6.6 7.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 11.6 13.4 11.8 2.9 89.8 85.1 7.7 9.1 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 5.8 7.6 8.4 2.8 88.9 84.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 11.5 13.3 9.9 3.0 89.2 84.6 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 10.9 13.0 9.4 3.3 91.3 86.1 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 10.1 12.1 11.3 3.0 91.5 86.9 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 4.2 5.3 9.0 2.6 85.3 80.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 12.1 14.0 10.7 2.9 88.8 83.9 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 11.1 12.6 9.8 2.8 86.8 81.8 7.5 9.0 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 11.7 13.6 10.3 3.0 88.9 84.3 7.7 9.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 11.5 13.2 9.6 2.8 87.7 83.0 7.8 9.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.9 10.2 3.3 91.1 86.5 7.8 9.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 11.8 13.2 10.9 2.6 84.7 79.5 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 9.4 11.2 9.6 2.8 90.6 85.4 6.2 7.4 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 12.3 14.4 10.1 3.3 90.9 86.3 8.3 9.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 9.5 11.2 10.9 2.7 89.6 84.7 6.1 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 9.3 10.5 9.7 2.7 85.5 80.2 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 10.5 12.4 11.5 2.8 89.2 84.3 6.9 8.3 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 8.4 9.6 7.9 2.5 83.8 78.8 4.8 6.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 11.7 13.5 11.3 2.9 89.5 84.9 7.7 9.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 10.1 11.7 10.8 2.5 87.4 82.4 6.6 8.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 10.4 12.0 11.6 2.7 87.4 82.4 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 12.2 13.8 10.9 2.8 86.7 81.5 8.6 10.1 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 10.6 12.6 10.3 3.1 91.8 87.2 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 10.9 12.5 9.2 2.9 90.6 86.3 7.5 8.8 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.6 13.9 11.2 3.3 92.9 88.4 7.6 9.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 10.0 11.6 9.0 2.8 89.0 84.0 6.7 8.0 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 8.0 9.4 9.1 2.7 85.0 79.8 4.5 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 10.4 12.3 11.5 3.0 91.1 86.5 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------