***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.1 9.7 92.8 62.4 48.7 4.1 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.4 16.8 12.4 130.9 73.1 57.9 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.8 8.5 81.8 58.5 47.2 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 15.2 10.9 87.7 61.1 51.0 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.4 11.9 7.6 65.8 52.7 43.4 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.8 12.3 7.8 72.7 55.4 45.9 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.2 16.0 12.6 135.0 74.2 58.5 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.4 22.0 14.3 111.2 66.3 57.9 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.3 7.8 70.4 54.4 46.1 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.1 9.8 77.0 56.9 49.2 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.3 13.5 8.4 73.1 55.6 45.4 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.9 20.4 13.0 112.1 67.3 56.9 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.5 13.1 9.5 76.2 56.4 45.2 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.7 10.6 78.1 56.9 47.6 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 15.0 11.7 100.9 65.5 54.6 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.4 9.0 77.5 57.4 45.9 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.3 18.5 15.0 158.1 79.0 63.0 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 15.9 12.1 90.8 61.6 53.9 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.7 17.8 11.3 114.5 68.8 54.6 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.5 27.4 21.1 140.9 74.2 65.6 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.1 11.9 7.9 71.3 54.9 45.7 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.9 20.8 14.7 144.9 76.3 60.3 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.2 14.2 10.1 95.3 62.9 50.3 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.1 8.9 71.4 54.3 46.7 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.4 9.1 76.6 56.7 46.3 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.1 22.0 15.6 133.9 73.9 62.1 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.9 9.8 89.8 61.2 48.3 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.8 9.2 80.7 59.2 48.8 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 26.8 16.4 115.9 68.3 60.1 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 15.5 11.2 116.8 69.5 54.8 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------