***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.3 11.4 79.8 54.5 42.3 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.0 9.4 71.9 51.7 40.0 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.4 11.0 79.2 54.4 41.2 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.9 14.3 15.6 102.6 63.6 47.7 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.7 14.3 97.2 61.2 45.9 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.7 14.7 104.2 64.2 48.7 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.3 9.4 73.0 52.6 40.9 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.7 14.0 15.4 96.4 60.9 45.0 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.4 14.0 92.4 59.4 44.5 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.9 11.8 15.1 95.6 60.5 44.9 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.8 11.0 14.3 99.0 62.0 45.9 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.1 13.5 14.3 99.3 62.2 45.7 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.0 14.2 95.9 60.8 46.9 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.5 9.5 12.0 74.0 51.4 40.1 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 5.2 19.8 18.4 116.4 68.9 48.4 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.1 14.0 98.2 61.8 46.6 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.1 8.9 69.0 50.4 39.9 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.5 12.8 15.0 90.7 58.2 43.8 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.3 9.4 71.5 51.3 39.8 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 13.2 17.5 84.4 55.9 43.7 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.6 12.5 85.9 56.9 43.3 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.4 9.2 68.2 49.6 39.6 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.0 9.6 70.5 50.6 39.6 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.1 11.7 13.1 85.4 56.5 42.4 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.8 13.2 84.8 56.2 44.4 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.2 15.1 99.4 62.6 48.0 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.2 12.0 81.0 55.0 43.2 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.5 15.4 16.2 110.2 66.4 48.2 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.5 17.7 15.2 86.5 56.2 43.3 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.4 9.8 73.2 52.7 40.4 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------