***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.1 11.8 86.9 58.1 46.9 4.2 7.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.9 10.7 86.3 57.3 44.6 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.3 11.9 87.9 57.8 46.4 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.1 15.2 100.1 63.6 49.0 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.6 14.5 98.8 62.7 50.2 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.7 14.5 104.3 64.9 50.7 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.1 10.6 88.7 58.2 44.9 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.4 15.1 97.7 61.6 49.1 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.4 14.6 96.8 61.4 49.9 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.9 14.8 95.3 60.4 49.1 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.5 14.3 99.5 62.7 49.2 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.3 14.5 103.0 64.0 49.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.9 15.0 104.2 64.5 49.9 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 11.3 13.7 85.2 56.1 46.5 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 13.1 16.3 104.5 66.1 48.2 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.7 14.2 100.4 63.2 48.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.9 10.2 86.4 57.3 44.8 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.3 14.3 89.5 57.8 48.0 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.0 10.8 84.8 56.5 44.5 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.7 17.7 90.4 58.4 48.0 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.9 13.5 94.1 60.5 48.9 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 8.1 10.4 81.6 55.2 44.1 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.8 11.2 84.7 55.9 44.6 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 13.3 87.6 57.2 47.3 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.1 13.9 92.7 60.8 48.8 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.5 15.7 109.3 66.6 51.3 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.0 12.5 89.5 59.1 47.5 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.8 14.9 102.1 64.6 48.3 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.9 14.7 87.1 56.8 47.3 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.5 11.0 86.4 57.4 45.0 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------