***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 43.0 36.9 47.0 91.6 51.1 47.1 24.4 35.9 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.5 36.8 43.6 94.1 53.0 48.1 23.8 34.8 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 52.9 42.9 44.4 87.5 47.6 44.2 31.4 44.9 60.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 57.0 59.0 58.3 101.2 58.5 52.1 37.6 51.3 66.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 52.4 45.0 49.5 89.9 50.2 46.2 31.1 44.8 61.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 53.5 50.5 49.2 97.4 56.0 49.5 31.1 45.1 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.8 36.4 43.9 95.9 54.6 49.5 23.0 33.3 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 72.8 67.9 57.3 97.0 54.5 49.9 43.1 62.2 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 48.2 40.1 49.0 88.6 49.0 45.2 28.4 41.0 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 57.6 48.9 52.3 89.3 48.8 45.4 35.9 50.1 66.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 55.9 47.5 49.6 91.2 50.8 46.4 30.9 46.6 66.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 62.8 62.5 54.2 101.0 58.0 52.0 35.4 52.9 73.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 58.2 53.9 53.9 97.7 55.7 49.6 30.1 47.2 68.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 39.9 51.3 49.7 82.2 41.6 39.3 43.9 59.1 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 62.9 76.4 65.4 114.2 66.4 57.4 36.0 54.0 75.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 53.5 49.0 50.6 95.1 54.1 48.5 30.4 45.0 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.0 40.3 44.4 97.5 55.9 49.6 26.4 36.4 47.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.8 50.0 53.7 88.5 47.5 44.7 38.3 52.3 68.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 28.8 41.3 42.7 90.4 49.8 45.5 30.0 41.6 55.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 66.3 61.9 72.9 97.3 54.4 50.7 39.3 56.9 77.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.6 39.7 47.1 87.6 48.1 44.6 28.3 41.3 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.5 45.0 44.6 92.9 52.1 46.7 32.1 43.3 56.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 28.5 37.1 42.3 85.4 45.4 42.0 29.4 40.2 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 35.8 45.7 47.9 83.8 43.8 41.4 36.6 51.3 68.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.7 36.5 52.6 91.5 51.3 47.8 24.3 35.5 48.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 53.2 65.3 63.4 115.6 67.2 59.5 29.8 45.2 63.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.4 36.5 49.1 91.6 51.2 47.8 22.9 35.6 51.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 53.2 56.6 56.4 104.0 60.3 52.7 31.4 46.1 63.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.9 75.7 59.7 92.7 50.6 47.2 54.7 75.3 98.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 42.3 36.8 44.0 92.4 51.6 47.4 24.5 35.6 48.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------