***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 6.4 6.9 3.2 84.0 80.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 4.8 5.9 6.6 3.1 83.9 80.8 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 6.8 8.3 6.9 3.4 86.6 83.4 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 2.0 3.4 3.9 2.8 83.9 80.7 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 3.8 4.5 4.5 2.6 80.9 78.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 2.9 3.3 1.8 2.1 77.7 75.4 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 4.3 5.2 6.2 2.7 80.4 77.6 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 -0.4 0.6 3.4 3.0 82.9 80.7 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 4.7 5.6 5.0 2.6 82.1 78.7 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 4.0 4.9 4.1 2.9 82.6 79.8 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 3.6 4.2 4.0 2.5 80.3 77.6 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 2.8 3.4 3.4 2.5 79.0 76.8 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 2.7 2.8 2.5 1.7 71.4 69.4 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 4.8 5.9 5.4 2.9 83.4 80.4 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 3.6 4.7 4.9 2.9 86.0 81.7 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 4.1 4.4 3.1 2.1 76.6 74.2 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 4.1 4.9 6.1 2.8 81.6 78.8 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 2.2 3.0 3.5 2.8 82.1 79.3 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 4.6 6.0 6.8 3.3 86.5 83.3 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.2 83.2 81.3 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 4.8 5.9 6.2 3.0 83.8 80.6 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 3.7 4.7 6.3 2.9 83.5 80.5 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 4.1 5.7 6.7 3.5 89.1 85.8 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 3.7 4.7 5.1 2.9 84.5 81.4 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 4.4 5.5 5.8 3.1 85.0 81.6 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 2.8 3.0 2.5 1.9 72.7 70.6 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.9 6.0 2.7 81.0 77.6 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 2.7 3.4 4.0 2.5 81.8 78.7 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 2.9 4.2 2.9 3.0 83.4 80.6 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 5.3 6.5 6.8 3.1 84.5 81.3 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------