***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 14.8 13.3 3.1 81.8 80.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.6 13.1 3.1 81.8 79.9 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 14.7 15.7 13.6 3.1 80.8 79.1 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 7.9 8.1 9.3 1.6 68.9 67.7 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 14.0 14.7 11.5 2.5 75.5 74.1 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.4 10.7 3.0 77.0 75.6 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 13.2 14.4 13.0 3.1 82.1 80.1 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 6.3 6.8 11.2 3.2 78.7 77.5 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 14.8 15.5 12.7 2.8 77.5 76.1 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 13.9 14.5 12.1 3.1 77.9 76.6 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 14.3 15.0 11.7 2.7 75.8 74.4 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 14.4 15.1 11.3 3.0 78.1 76.7 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.4 12.0 3.4 80.8 79.3 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 15.4 16.3 13.4 3.2 78.4 76.7 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 10.8 11.1 10.3 1.7 71.7 70.3 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 14.8 15.6 11.5 2.9 77.1 75.6 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 12.6 13.6 12.6 2.9 80.6 78.7 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 13.2 14.1 12.4 3.7 81.1 79.7 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 13.9 15.3 13.4 3.1 81.8 79.9 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.3 11.1 4.3 85.5 84.4 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.5 15.2 13.1 2.8 78.0 76.5 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 13.4 14.4 12.8 2.9 79.6 77.8 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 13.7 15.0 13.6 3.2 81.7 79.9 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 15.4 16.3 13.3 3.4 79.6 78.0 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 13.3 14.0 11.9 2.8 78.6 77.2 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 13.3 14.2 11.1 3.4 83.0 81.9 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 14.6 15.7 12.9 3.1 81.8 80.1 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 11.2 11.3 9.8 1.6 67.9 66.7 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 11.3 12.7 12.2 4.2 84.4 83.1 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 13.4 14.6 13.4 3.2 82.4 80.5 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------