***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 10.9 10.4 1.0 61.6 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.6 9.9 0.8 60.1 58.5 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.7 10.4 0.8 58.9 57.6 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.3 4.3 8.3 0.4 54.9 55.0 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.0 8.9 0.5 55.0 55.0 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.3 8.2 0.6 56.2 56.8 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.5 9.8 0.9 61.3 59.4 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.2 8.3 0.6 56.7 56.6 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.9 9.5 0.5 55.2 55.0 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.0 8.9 0.6 56.0 55.8 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.4 8.9 0.6 56.2 56.1 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.4 8.8 0.6 57.1 57.0 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.8 8.6 0.8 58.8 58.6 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.7 9.5 0.5 54.9 54.4 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.4 8.4 0.4 55.7 55.7 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.9 8.7 0.6 56.3 56.4 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.8 9.5 0.7 58.6 57.3 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.5 8.7 0.7 56.9 56.3 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.8 10.1 0.7 58.9 57.6 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.5 7.1 0.9 59.7 58.8 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 10.0 0.6 56.8 56.2 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.1 9.6 0.5 56.1 55.4 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.5 10.2 0.6 57.4 56.3 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.0 9.6 0.6 56.3 55.6 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.9 9.1 0.9 60.1 59.1 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 8.5 0.9 60.7 60.4 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 11.7 11.1 9.8 1.0 62.4 60.7 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.2 8.9 8.5 0.3 53.5 54.0 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.2 8.0 0.8 58.6 57.6 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.7 10.1 0.9 60.8 59.1 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------