***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 9.4 7.5 0.8 58.3 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.1 7.2 0.8 58.7 56.9 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.3 7.5 0.7 57.4 55.5 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.0 2.6 5.5 0.3 53.4 52.9 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.7 6.0 0.3 53.5 52.6 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.2 5.4 0.4 54.4 53.9 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.7 8.0 7.1 0.8 59.0 57.1 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.1 2.3 5.4 0.3 53.6 52.9 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.4 6.7 0.4 54.1 52.9 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.6 6.0 0.4 54.0 52.9 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.9 6.0 0.4 53.7 52.8 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 5.9 0.4 53.8 53.3 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 5.7 0.5 55.4 54.7 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.3 6.8 0.6 55.5 54.0 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.9 5.8 0.3 53.9 53.5 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 5.8 0.4 54.1 53.3 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.2 6.8 0.7 57.7 56.1 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.7 5.8 0.5 55.1 53.9 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.4 7.4 0.8 58.4 56.5 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 4.3 0.6 55.9 55.0 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 7.1 0.5 55.3 53.8 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.8 7.0 0.6 57.0 55.2 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.4 7.5 0.8 57.8 55.8 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.8 6.8 0.6 55.8 54.2 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.0 6.1 0.6 56.7 55.0 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.8 5.6 0.5 55.4 55.5 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 6.9 0.8 58.4 56.3 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.2 5.8 0.2 52.8 52.5 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.9 5.2 0.6 56.1 54.8 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.3 7.3 0.8 58.9 56.9 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------