***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 9.0 9.2 1.2 71.0 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.5 8.9 1.1 70.6 66.0 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.6 9.3 1.1 68.8 64.6 7.5 9.0 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.1 6.8 0.5 59.3 57.9 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.0 7.7 0.7 62.5 60.2 7.4 8.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.7 7.0 0.9 65.5 63.1 6.9 8.4 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.4 8.7 1.1 71.6 66.7 6.2 7.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 3.8 3.5 7.2 0.9 65.5 62.9 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.8 8.5 0.8 63.9 61.1 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.0 7.8 0.9 64.8 62.2 7.3 8.7 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.3 7.7 0.8 63.6 61.2 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.4 7.6 0.9 65.1 62.5 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.7 7.6 1.1 68.3 64.9 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 11.1 10.8 8.7 0.9 65.2 62.2 7.9 9.5 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.6 8.0 7.2 0.5 61.2 59.5 6.0 7.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.9 7.5 0.9 64.5 62.0 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.7 8.7 8.5 1.0 69.1 64.9 5.8 7.2 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.6 7.7 1.1 67.5 64.2 6.0 7.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.8 9.1 1.1 69.8 65.4 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 7.9 8.1 6.3 1.4 71.9 67.9 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.4 8.9 0.9 65.5 62.2 7.5 9.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.2 8.6 0.9 66.6 63.0 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.7 9.2 1.1 68.7 64.6 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.3 8.7 1.0 66.6 63.2 8.4 9.9 11.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 9.4 9.5 7.8 1.0 68.2 64.5 6.6 8.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.0 7.3 1.2 70.2 66.3 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.8 8.6 1.2 71.6 66.9 7.5 8.9 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.4 7.0 0.4 58.0 57.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.6 7.2 1.3 70.4 66.6 4.3 5.8 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.6 9.1 1.2 71.2 66.5 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------