***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 31.7 37.8 69.0 31.7 31.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 22.1 25.4 38.5 71.4 34.4 32.9 24.6 35.5 48.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 27.7 30.7 39.4 72.5 34.4 33.4 29.7 43.6 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 36.2 42.2 43.0 78.3 39.2 38.3 37.4 51.4 67.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 30.5 31.9 40.3 73.2 34.5 35.0 30.8 44.3 60.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 30.8 33.3 41.6 76.1 36.1 36.4 30.9 44.8 60.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 21.3 23.6 37.6 70.2 33.0 32.2 23.6 33.9 46.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 43.4 46.1 44.5 75.1 36.0 36.3 43.1 62.2 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 28.5 30.1 40.9 74.4 35.4 35.5 28.4 41.0 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 57.3 37.2 43.6 74.3 34.7 35.3 35.7 49.6 65.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 31.8 31.8 38.0 72.5 33.8 34.5 31.3 47.0 65.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 36.0 39.2 39.6 75.1 36.4 36.5 36.1 53.6 74.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 28.9 30.1 40.0 71.6 32.4 33.7 30.6 47.4 68.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 42.3 48.0 49.0 77.4 37.5 35.9 43.9 59.7 76.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 35.2 54.4 47.8 89.0 49.0 44.4 37.3 55.6 77.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.4 30.4 37.7 71.4 32.6 33.7 30.6 45.2 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 25.0 28.9 37.6 71.5 35.5 34.2 27.4 37.6 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 38.1 39.3 48.9 74.4 34.4 34.7 38.0 52.3 68.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 26.6 30.4 39.3 72.5 35.2 33.5 29.0 41.0 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 37.3 38.2 58.3 71.9 32.6 33.4 38.6 55.8 76.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.2 29.0 39.6 72.6 34.0 33.9 28.4 41.3 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 29.9 34.9 40.2 74.1 37.5 35.8 31.9 43.4 56.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.8 30.8 41.3 74.8 36.6 34.7 28.6 39.7 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 36.7 39.9 45.6 75.7 36.3 35.5 37.2 52.0 69.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 22.0 22.5 41.0 68.7 30.4 31.4 24.2 35.1 48.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 30.2 35.1 43.2 77.5 39.1 38.8 29.7 45.2 63.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 20.7 20.9 39.6 67.3 29.3 30.0 23.4 36.3 52.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 30.8 39.6 43.1 81.7 42.4 40.4 31.7 46.3 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 54.5 55.3 52.9 73.0 33.3 33.7 54.9 75.0 97.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.9 24.5 38.5 71.0 33.4 32.1 24.2 35.6 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------