***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 4.0 11.6 69.9 46.5 36.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.0 11.5 69.0 45.6 35.9 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.5 12.4 76.0 49.3 38.7 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.0 12.0 78.6 50.4 41.5 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.0 12.1 79.0 50.4 41.6 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.3 11.3 12.7 84.8 54.4 45.9 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.0 5.3 11.3 68.1 45.5 35.5 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.7 15.9 13.5 83.9 54.0 44.3 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.5 12.9 83.7 52.9 42.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.3 13.6 84.0 53.3 43.0 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.1 11.3 79.2 51.5 42.3 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.9 83.8 54.5 44.6 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 9.7 11.9 78.2 51.2 42.7 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.8 12.8 16.1 85.2 53.7 42.8 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.8 14.1 95.7 59.7 48.0 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.6 11.2 76.9 50.2 42.1 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.8 11.3 69.4 46.7 36.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.3 15.5 83.0 52.6 42.6 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 6.9 12.1 72.1 47.6 37.4 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.4 8.9 17.3 72.6 47.4 40.3 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.6 12.4 78.6 49.6 39.2 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.6 8.1 12.3 72.5 47.9 37.9 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.0 13.2 78.1 51.0 39.9 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.7 14.7 84.1 53.1 42.2 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.8 5.2 12.0 67.8 43.6 35.9 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.8 13.0 87.4 56.9 46.6 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.8 4.8 11.9 66.3 43.6 34.9 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.4 12.6 87.5 55.5 45.4 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 13.7 16.4 77.6 50.2 41.6 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.4 11.7 69.7 46.2 36.3 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------